Profitable Investing Richard Band

Profitable Investing Richard Band – Richard Band is retiring just when we might need him the most. For those of you who don’t know him, Band has been the editor of the Profitable Investing newsletter for 28 years. His niche was low-risk strategies for the long term, and he delivered: Since 1991, when my Hulbert Financial Digest began tracking him, his model portfolios have averaged 36% less volatility, or risk, than stocks. the market as a whole.

Of course, the Group’s average portfolio – unsurprisingly – did not perform as well as the higher-risk all-stock index fund. But my calculations show that it has outperformed its rivals by 2.4 percentage points annually over the past three decades, which conservative investors might consider a reasonable concession to sleep easier. As of Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.00% was down 459 points, or 1.9%.

Profitable Investing Richard Band

Fortunately, Band believes the market’s recent weakness presents solid opportunities for conservative long-term investors to buy quality stocks at lower prices.

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Among several stocks and ETFs, Bando recommends in the latest issue of the Profitable Investing newsletter — his last as editor — a clear favorite is Verizon Communications VZ, -0.15%  . His main reason: The company pays a nice dividend — currently 5.0% — and is undervalued at its valuation; shares currently trade at a P/E of 10.3 (per FactSet) based on estimated trailing 12-month earnings, compared to a P/E of 16.9 for the S&P SPX, +1.89%

Often, a stock that pays such a high dividend is considered a significant risk for a dividend cut. But Band rules out that possibility in the Verizon case because of recent tax reform legislation. Notes Group: “Tax reform is doing wonders for this telecom titan’s bottom line. After-tax earnings for 2018 will increase to $2.7 billion, driving free cash flow… VZ’s free cash flow this year will include . dividend by a record margin. That means (1) your dividend is safer than ever and (2) Verizon has plenty of room to raise the payout. I’m looking for Verizon’s board to announce its 11th consecutive annual dividend increase. September.

Another top newsletter editor who recommends Verizon is John Buckingham, editor of Prudent Speculator. In an email earlier this week, partially tongue-in-cheek, Buckingham wondered whether Band’s retirement meant he was now the elder statesman of the newsletter industry, having started editing the service in 1990 — before he was 28.

In any case, Buckingham says of Verizon: “We agree with Mr. Band that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act could boost the bottom line given the past tax rate was well above 30%, but we don’t. given employee benefits and a likely increased cap, we’re sure all those dollars are flowing into free cash. That said, our Target Price is $63, which, along with a generous (and likely growing) dividend, provides ample reason to value the stock. as a buy in terms of total revenue potential.”

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It should be noted that although Band himself has retired, his newsletter will continue to be edited by Neil George, whose bio informs him that he is the former chief economist of a division of the United States. Banking and associate professor and board member of the Walker School of Business at Webster University. .

When asked if he would be open to a “Michael Jordan comeback,” Band emailed back, “Never say never, but let me see how I like this retirement thing first!”

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U.S. stocks ended Friday with sharp gains, but not enough to stem weekly losses for the S&P 500 or the Dow as investors heard more about the need to cut inflation from the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 329 points, or 1%, to close at 33,374 on Friday, while the S&P 500 gained 1.9% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.7%. It was their best daily percentage gain since Jan. 6, according to Dow Jones Market Data. During the week, the Dow index again lost 2.7%, the S&P 500 lost 0.7%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.6%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday it was time to slow, but not stop, interest rate hikes, while New York Fed President John Williams said inflation remained “very high”. Shares of Netflix Inc. rose nearly 7.8% on Friday after it reported that undefined gained millions of new subscribers. Supply-sensitive stocks have been somewhat relieved by falling long-term interest rates this year. The 10-year Treasury fell for a third week in a row to 3,483% at 3:00 pm on Friday. Eastern, down 4.231% from peak in October. Next week, Microsoft Corp. undefined, 3M Co. unspecified, Tesla Inc. unspecified, Boeing Co. undefined and McDonald’s Corp.

Mark is a columnist for Hulbert. His Hulbert Ratings service tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be reviewed. Richard Band, who this month celebrates 25 years at the helm of the advisory service, has beaten the market for the past 15 years, despite spectacularly wrong predictions in 2008. – 2009 bear market.

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Just ask Richard Band, head of the investment advisory service Profitable Investing by Richard Band, who celebrates his 25th anniversary this month. Gang rarely tries to hit home runs, focusing on developing a good on-base percentage.

His model portfolio returned 5.3% annually from early 2000 to the end of last year, compared with 4.7% for the broad stock market (as measured by the Wilshire 5000 total return index), according to Hulbert Financial Digest. Beating the market over a 15-year period is always remarkable, of course, but especially when achieved with as little risk as Bando. According to HFD, its portfolio was a third less risky than the Wilshire benchmark, meaning it outperformed the market on a risk-adjusted basis.

As impressive as Band’s track record is, I’d bet that many investors know him less for his slow-and-steady-win racial approach than for his spectacularly wrong prediction in the spring of 2008. It was still early. The bear market of 2008-2009, of course. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.00%  had fallen nearly 1,800 points from its October 2007 market high (about 13%) by then, it still remains about 50% down (another 6,000 points). ahead

The group’s crystal ball at the time showed much bluer skies than the expected storm: It predicted “a test that could push the blue indexes to all-time highs in late 2008 or early 2009. Here we go, Dow 16,000!”

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Reached by phone earlier this week, Bando admitted it was “the biggest prediction error of my career.”

How could such a spectacularly wrong prediction not be fatal? Because Band didn’t bet that everything would come true. In the spring 2008 release of its service, when it did so, Band increased its clients’ recommended stock exposure by just one percentage point—from 69% to 70%.

“Forecasting is secondary to the long-term investment strategy we pursue,” Band told me. That strategy — allocating roughly two-thirds of the portfolio to equities and one-third to fixed income — is “informed by long-term historical trends” rather than any specific forecast.

Admittedly, Band admitted that he wished he hadn’t made that mistake in early 2008. And he allows that he would probably have more subscribers if he fixed it.

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Unfortunately, he suspects those extra customers would be worse off today if he had made the right call.

That’s because forecasters who routinely grab the headlines will sooner or later blow it up with a “catastrophe” call. And so much volatility is causing clients to throw in the towel, thereby losing advisers long-term potential.

Echoing Woody Allen’s quote that “90% of life is just showing up,” Band says that “90% of winning the investment game is staying in it.” So, it is important to choose a conservative approach that you can live with through thick and thin.

For Band, that approach calls for more or less the same allocation today as in years past: He currently recommends that clients allocate 62% of their portfolios.

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